ekcite's betfair traderizm

week 4 + 5

2009-02-02T09:49:00.005Z

Hi folks,

made a profit of EUR146.45 over the last two weeks. Did not have much time to place my bets because of my job. Hope to continue this way!

week 2 + 3

2009-01-18T19:56:00.000Z

Hi,

the last two weeks were a little difficult. The reason for that is that I tried the greyhounds again.... and it ended in a big loss of -EUR278.09.

I was very mad! Then an idea for the horses came into my mind trying to place bets in-running. So I managed to accumulate a profit of EUR180.58.

Furthermore I tested some Tennis matches which resulted in a little loss of -EUR7.65.

Well, the horses are a little time consuming. Because of job business it seems to be hard for me to do some profits because I will be at home in the evening when the afternoon races are over. Hope to get in touch with some evening races.

Cya all! Happy betting!

Update

2009-01-06T09:15:00.004Z

Hello to all and a happy new year!

Had been busy until christmas and then had some holidays until last sunday and wasn't able to update my blog. So here you get an update:

In december I managed to make a profit of about EUR144.65 which means an increase of my bank of 19.29% in that month.

In year 2009 I only managed to bet on a match yesterday and it resulted in a EUR21.25 profit.

I hope to be able to bet at least on one soccer match each day.

Not much to say...

2008-12-15T12:30:00.005Z

but I am tuning my system very hard at the moment. Hope to put away the loss-figure which may occur. Will try to have my system ready within this week.

Yours,

ekcite

Little profit...

2008-12-08T09:04:00.006Z

The last week I managed a profit of about EUR41.00. I did not bet much because I found a little weakness of my football system which I have to work out!

So again a lot of thinking will be needed before to bet further on.

Let's start!

2008-12-02T13:31:00.005Z

So from this week on (yesterday) I start the new journey. Maybe I can achieve some long term profit this time!

The results will be updated every week. The starting bank is about EUR750.

Hello to all!

2008-11-26T12:50:00.004Z

Hi,

I am planning to start a new challenge where I concentrate on football matches. Tried a strategy for some time now and it looks promising.

I plan to update my blog regularly once a week.

Stay tuned.

Happy new year!

2008-01-11T11:54:00.000Z

Hello to all my readers. Sorry for the big lack of updates but I had a little break between christmas and now. I traded very little and I only tested some things out. o nothing really new from that point.

Besides I am playing poker right now. The reason for that is that I love to play that game at home and plan to build my own poker table. So I need some poker chips which you can easily get by playing some bonuses. So the most of my free time is spent for poker playing. I have nearly achieved half of the points I need for getting my poker chips.

I will inform you when I am placing bets at betfair. There will be some so stay continued!

ekcite

Nothing really new

2007-12-18T08:24:00.000Z

Hi to all,

because of the lack of updates I just want to let you know that I had a busy week (not only work but christmas things as well). I am currently working on some inplay horse trading thing which is not ready yet. I have to adjust some things.

Cya soon. I will let you know!

Balance: ~315€

Loss!

2007-12-10T22:58:00.000Z

Result since last post: EUR -60,78

Had a horrible sunday as some other traders too. I had 3 consecutive losers and was not willing to bet everything (whole bank) for a little win. So I decided to take that loss. Damn!

Today I thought of changing my previous strategy by adding some safety points. I will give it a try because I think it has a positive expectancy as Jaco has already commented before.

Cu!

A plus!

2007-12-07T20:21:00.000Z

Today's Result: EUR 15,27

Today I managed a profit shown above. Not much to say about it. I just use the MoM-system which I modified a little to fit my style.

Have a nice weekend!

Hmmm... again a different system

2007-12-06T22:58:00.001Z

Result since last post: EUR 35.20

Well my winning run got a bad beat on 5th december. My bank got down to about EUR 280. So that was the point for me not to continue with that system. Then I did a chasing bet to get were I was. So with a bank of about EUR 309 I managed to win EUR 35.20. That was by following the Man of Mystery's system. I did so because I haven't had 2 consecutive wrong selections with the first system.

BUT by using the new system there were 3 consecutive very fast and I was in problems. Luckily the 4th selection did not win.

I will give it a try. I have to be as selective as I was with the other system!!!

Good luck!

ekcite

There it is...

2007-12-04T21:45:00.000Z

Result since last post: EUR -24.30

...the first loss since a "longer" time. I do not hope that this will be the start of a losing run.

I wasn't able to put a lot of bets on the markets because very few had been suitable. So I only betted yesterday on just 5 races which resulted in a little EUR 4.20 win due to one loss.

Today I betted on 7 races and was wrong on four of them. This resulted in a EUR -28.50 loss.

Added up the result is very poor for the last two days. I hope to improve tomorrow!

We will see. Good luck to all others!

What a day!!

2007-12-02T16:02:00.000Z

Today's Result: EUR 43.33

Today I layed 14 selections and won on 100% of them. Everything is going fine. Could not believe the result when I logged into my account.

That means that the overall strike rate has reached 82,52%.

If all were so easy. I think there will also be a sequence of consecutive losing days. As always I do not hope so!

Have a great sunday evening!

A pleasant 1st december

2007-12-01T19:08:00.000Z

Today's Profit: EUR 24.59

Well it is crazy. Just looked 10 minutes at the markets. Placed my bets and went off. Then in the evening I came back and what I saw in my account was very surprising. A massive 9.13% profit. I did not think that this day would become so productive.

I betted on 13 meetings and only lost on 1. That result put my overall strike rate near the 80% mark. I hope to pass that mark!

Well, december could not start better. I hope you all did as good!

Cu!

11 races

2007-11-30T17:16:00.000Z

Today's Result: EUR 10.69

Betted on 11 races and lost on 2 which resulted in a profit of 4.16%. I think there will also be bad days. So one of them will come up shortly I think. I do not hope so!

EUR 3.56 + EUR 47.50 due to a mistake

2007-11-29T22:35:00.000Z

Result since last post: EUR 51.06

Yesterday I betted on the horses in the afternoon and was up EUR 9.xx. Then I turned to the evening meetings which were of short distances. I had to accept 3 out of 6 selections that were wrong. So it pulled down my strike rate very much ;(. Therefore the EUR 9.xx profit resulted in a loss of EUR -3.73. I will not bet on short distance races anymore I think.

Today I betted on 18 races. 17 of them were regularly layed. On 5 out of 17 I was wrong. But anyhow it resulted in a profit of EUR 7.29. So I was up EUR 3.56 since last posting.

Then I downloaded the racingtraders software and tested it. Somehow I managed to lay a horse in an US-meeting and suddenly the market got suspended. I checked the rules if the market will turn to inplay but it didn't. So I had some thrilling moments as my liability was about EUR 100. Fortunately the horse did not win. So my profits got an extremely boost.

I hope to continue the "normal" way.

Putting theory into practice

2007-11-27T22:30:00.000Z

Today's result: EUR 5.87

As I said yesterday I am improving my thoughts on the horses. So I tweaked some screws on the stake sizes which resulted in a 2.91% profit for today. I betted on 11 races, won on 9 and lost on 2.

The strike rate for the last two days is 84%. That means 4 out of 25 layed selections won.

I am hoping to increase my strike rate so that the return can be better especially for my low bank.

Cu all!

Hmmm no dogs anymore ;)

2007-11-26T20:48:00.000Z

Result since last post: EUR 23.82

I don't do the dogs anymore as my system got broken because of 4 consecutive winners in a row. After that I chased my loss on a single racehorse meeting to come back where I was.

From then I tested a few things out on the horses and I am not ready yet to continue. I have to check some things to start again, e.g. today I layed 14 horses which resulted in a profit of EUR 3.17. If I had used another staking plan which I am currently thinking of it could have been EUR 22.90. So there is a lot space to improve.

Back from holiday & 64 bets

2007-11-20T20:41:00.000Z

Result since last post: EUR 15.97

Hi to all!
Had a very nice weekend with party. Have been to Berlin for a visit. Very interesting city!

From yesterday on I betted on 64 meetings which resulted in a profit of EUR 15.97. So very hard work I can tell you! Had 2 bigger chases as there were two times 3 consecutive winners which I layed! So I had to suffer a bit.

I was able to up my bank 9.87% since the last post. I hope to continue that way!

Quick update before off for holiday

2007-11-15T13:30:00.000Z

Today's Result: €1.87

Did some quick bets on some meetings but I am off from now.

See you next week!

40 bets = €11.43

2007-11-14T22:40:00.000Z

Result since last post: €11.43

Yesterday I could only place 15 bets which resulted in a low profit of €3.53. Today I got involved into 25 races which is accounted that I had more time to watch the markets. So my profit for today is €7.90. The bigger percentual profit today also came by doing some tuning to the stakes I use. This will give me more "base-win".

From tomorrow until monday there won't be bets because I will not be at home for that time.

I hope you all did well today!

Cya next week!

Back on track to get back my bank!

2007-11-12T21:27:00.000Z

Today's Result: €8.67

Today I have betted on 35 races which resulted in a profit of 6.2%. It is another feeling when betting on so many races in contrast to just about 3-6 races a day. I think I have to tune the selections a little bit because I had a row of 3 losing bets. I hope I will have a better choice tomorrow. I do not know if I will be able to place so many bets every day because I have to work besides.

But I am pleased with the result and hope to get back my bank!!

From €501.xx down to €139.81

2007-11-12T09:51:00.000Z

Oh my god!

Result since last post: -€344.45

Well after a very good run where I could achieve a bank size of about €501 I betted on some nasty dogs which win in a short timeframe where I could not recover my stages. So I fell down stage by stage! That was not very amusing but after an intense thinking at the weekend I came to the conclusion that finding losing dogs is very very time consuming and at some time you will come to the point where you can not bet the stakes you want to get matched because the market does not give you the liquidity.

So I decided to try to bet a little similar the Man of Mystery does. Finding favorites in a certain price-frame that are willing to lose. Therefore I had to think about the stakes. I will use stakes that will allow me to bet 5 times on the wrong dog until I will accept a loss of about 30%. Then I will adjust my stakes to the new bank size. If I win I will adjust the stakes day by day.

So, let's see where I can go to.

Hope you all did better!

*** Edit ***
I will use stakes that allow me to bet 4 times on the wrong dog until I will accept a loss of about 50%. This is because by the other method the winnings would be too small. When the bank has reached a certain size I will reduce the percentage of loss!

4 meetings + a win for the next stage

2007-11-08T21:31:00.000Z

Today's Result: €39.97

I thought about posting the Lays and Back selections I have done on the meetings. You are welcome to comment if you are interested that I do so in future. So here they are:

12:42 Sheffield 500m A4
- Bawna Girl Back
- Footfield Romeo Lay
- Confident Fawn Back
12:58 Sheffield 500m A3
- Clash Cinders Lay
20:48 Walthamstow 640m S1
- Killeacle Hobbs Lay
21:14 Walthamstow 475m A4
- Joshs Jet Lay

Well the trend is looking for some loss I think. But my really really next goal is to achive the next stage which is €548.80! The advantage of my money management is that if I get a position wrong I will have 2 more attempts (wrong Lay selections) to achive the following stage until I fall back to the last starting position. So by reaching €548.80 I will be 9 attempts ahead of my starting bank of €200. That would be fine.

My biggest problem in choosing the "right" dogs is that you have to be very selective. It is comparable to the discipline you have to have when you do trading. But this kind of discipline fits better to me I think ...until now.

So if you have the slightest bad gut feeling: Keep off!! Go to the next race and do research!!!

If I can get the predictions right as I have done for the last 59 ones I will be very happy!

Have a good night!

Quick update

2007-11-07T19:37:00.000Z

Today's Result: €19.95

Just a quick update as I have no time to post later. Had been involved into 2 meetings:

14:03 Newcastle 480m A3
16:37 Oxford 450m A4

The odds were relatively low so that I could lay with a bigger winning rate. The dogs did not become better than 3rd place.

I think about putting more back bets on the favorite dogs because on paper I could have achieved a bigger win.

No more to say. Cu all!

Results

2007-11-06T22:54:00.015Z

Overall Statistics:
Starting bank: EUR 750

Current bank size: EUR 955.51
Bank increase/loss (overall): EUR 205.51 27.40%

February: EUR 0.0 0%

Bank on 1st of this month: EUR 955.51

January: EUR 60.56 6.80%
Bank on 1st of this month: EUR 894.65

December: EUR 144.65 19.29%
Bank on 1st of this month: EUR 750

The next level

2007-11-06T21:58:00.000Z

Today's Result: €49.82

Today I managed to bet on the following meetings:

11:48 Nottingham 500m A5
19:43 Sheffield 500m A2
20:04 Newcastle 480m A4
20:19 Newcastle 480m A3
20:36 Newcastle 480m A4
20:47 Sheffield 500m A1

As I looked over all the BAGS-meetings I became a little disappointed because I only found one race to bet on. So I decided to go to the fitness club and run through the EVENING-Meetings afterwards. Against all of my expectations I found some aspirants. Just to mention I was lucky on my 2nd and 5th race as the dogs I layed became 2nd... BUT they didn't win and that's was my goal! I also put a bet on a reserve dog which I thought was way to good for the rest of the field. It won.

I am happy with the result today because besides achieving a new level I have also doubled my bank.

I thought about doing a result/statistics page within my blog. I think I will do it a little later this evening.

Cya l8er!

Roundup

2007-11-05T22:33:00.000Z

Result since last post: €18.23

Hello back to all my readers! Since the last post I only got involved into 2 races which resulted in a win as shown above:

18:16 Newcastle 480m A3 (03-Nov-07)
17:27 Oxford 450m A6 (04-Nov-07)

I was very busy doing "holiday" so that I rarely get sight of a computer ;) Hope to burst the next stage tomorrow so that I can shrink my liability. Have to go to sleep now!

Cya all!

4 races today

2007-10-31T22:01:00.000Z

Today's Result: €35.31

Just to let you know: I got involved into four meetings. All races were well chosen. None dog was under the top 3.

From tomorrow on I am not at home until Monday. Maybe I can get a minute or so during the days to put up a bet. If so i will let you know!

Hope you all do good trades/bets!

Cya!

On my way to the next level

2007-10-30T19:36:00.000Z

Today's Result: €25.17

Today I got involved into 5 meetings:

12:18 Nottingham 500m A7
14:37 Sunderland 450m A4
15:17 Sunderland 450m A3
18:56 Sheffield 500m A5
19:06 Hove 515m A3

Had one lucky bet on the 3rd race when Pond Mustique became 2nd ...0.02 seconds behind the first dog! The other meetings were after my fancy. There wasn't any dog better than 3rd place.

Well, I bet more against expectations. On the 2nd race I also backed two dogs which did not win. So my win could have been about 3€ bigger.

On my way to the next stage/level which is €392 (€280 bank + €112 winnings) I am at €42.98 now. So €69.02 are left to achieve the 2nd level.

Small but green

2007-10-29T21:45:00.000Z

Today's Result: €7.60

Just had been involved into 2 meetings:

15:38 Walthamstow 475m A6
21:17 Romford 400m A1

I was a little lucky on the second race because the dog I layed became 2nd. Thought it could become 3rd at most. But nevertheless: A win is a win... indifferent if trading or betting ;)

Maybe one or two bets tomorrow. I hope to get some time!!

A little up

2007-10-29T08:29:00.000Z

Result since last post: €8.85

I did not have much time to see through the racing cards. I just had bets on 26th and 28th. On 26th I had lost on one race -€28.8 which I could recover by yesterday and turn the loss into a little profit of €8.85.

Hope to place some more bets today. Until monday next week time will be rare. I have got a lot to do until Wednesday. From Thursday to Monday I will not be at home.

Damper

2007-10-25T22:36:00.000+01:00

Today's Result: -€11.85

Had 6 bets on the following meetings:

16:57 Crayford 380m A2
18:11 Romford 400m A7
18:48 Sittingbourne 480m A5
19:52 Sittingbourne 642m S2
20:51 Sittingbourne 480m A4
21:14 Newcastle 480m A2

All races went in my sense except the 2nd where I had lost -€44.40. I thought I had chosen the right dog ("Bet on Grable") but had a little bad gut feeling. The reason for that was that I layed it only because of his overall times and did not give attention to its' better than average starting times. So it was hardly surprising that "Bet on Grable" could go clear at top even that it (how do you say in this case: he or it?) got bumped and winning by an unoverwhelming 25.39.

Afterwards I staked the bets as if I had been in the stage before. So I was able to recover most of my losses very quick. I think I will not do that in future because if I had been caught once again my bank would be ~€200. So not taking an extra risk is better I think... but discipline can be so hard to you!

Good n8!

Quick update

2007-10-24T20:52:00.000+01:00

Today's Result: €10.45

Just a little update. I had only been involved into one meeting where a dog was favoured which I did not understand. So I was able to lay it at odds of 3.80 wich resulted in a €10.45 profit. I did not spot the dog to be placed better than 3rd place as I watched the result.

Have a good bet!

5 meetings + next stage

2007-10-23T22:09:00.000+01:00

Today's Result: €29.68

Today I dipped my fingers into 5 meetings:

18:28 Newcastle 480m A7
20:19 Newcastle 480m A2
21:00 Wimbledon 460m A5
21:16 Walthamstow 475m A4 T5
21:30 Wimbledon 460m A5 T1

After four meetings I reached my target of €80 profit so that I had a maximum risk of €28 on the last race. I had chosen the dogs very well because none of them did it better than the 4th place.

The next target will be about €112. I hope to reach it soon.

Cya all!

3 evening-meetings

2007-10-22T22:06:00.000+01:00

Today's Result: €19.94

I got three bets on the dogs in the evening. I did not think of having a bet today because I had to work until 18:30... then doing fitness ...coming home at 20:15 (CET). I flew over the racecards and spotted these meetings:

20:09 Yarmouth 462m A2
20:47 Romford 400m A2
21:12 Yarmouth 462m A1

I thought I found some clearly losers as in the first two meetings none of my dogs was under the first three positions. The last meeting I got a little lucky. The dog was an upgrader and never ever ran in that "first" class. The times weren't best... a little above the average but it became 2nd... thankfully not 1st... but I HAD to lay the dog because its' price was too short I thought.

The next step will be between €260-€280 when I have to start again with 10% of my bank. I hope to do so in the middle of the week.

Cya all! Have a good bet!

PS: All the best to Mark Iverson and his baby!! I keep my fingers crossed for them!!

The dogs instead of horses!

2007-10-21T19:33:00.000+01:00

Result since last post: +33.14€

On my way to new winnings I tried pre-horse trading but that did not work as I was hoping for. On some days my strategy worked well but on the next day it didn't... eating my hard earned winnings. So by only achieving a winning amount of about 5€ in 3 days AND risking the whole bank in running (because of chasing losses) I switched to the dogs.

From 19th october on I have won 21.28€ and that does sound much better to me than the risky horse trading. I know that you have to have very good knowledge by tipping the dogs but the past showed me that I did quite well.

By betting the dogs I had to think about a new money management. Here are my thoughts about two versions:

1) I always risk max. 10% of my bank. That means if I have 200€ I will risk 20€ (backing and/or laying). So by adding the win of a race, e.g. 4€ I will risk 20.4€ the next race.

2) I will start with a 10% risk of my bank and I will risk that amount adding all winnings until I achieved an overall win of 3-4 times the 10% risk. Then I will add the amount to the 200€ and start again with 10%.
That means I will risk 20€ in the first dog race. Then, adding a hypothetical win of 4€ my next races risk will be 24€ instead of the 20.4€ in the other example... and so on until I get to 60-80€ ...addded to 200€ results in 280€. The next risk will be 28€... trying to achieve 112€.

The second version assumes a better strike rate in winnings I think but the bank grows faster.

What do you think about these thoughts? Maybe you can give some feedback.

Cya all! Good luck!

ps: I changed my presentation of results to the old style.

Little piece of information

2007-10-16T21:56:00.000+01:00

My bank shows an amount of about 200€. I will try to start with pre-horse trading tomorrow although I will not have much time because of a meeting in the afternoon at 17:00pm (CET).

Cya all

Reorder

2007-10-08T22:12:00.000+01:00

Hello to all my readers!

I was down to 8.53€ at 2007-10-02 because I could not green out some trades that I had on the horses and then... they were lost. I thought I could green out during inplay but against all hopes luck went against me... as always when you try to chase losses.

Then I turned to the dogs and I did well since then. I was able to up my bank to an amount of 34.26€ but without any money management. I always risked the whole bank. I know it is bollocks but when you have "nothing" it is immaterial. You get an attitude of carelessness... the same carelessness you get when you have the right money management I think! Then your trades / bets WORK!

I want to get to 100€ an then come back and trade the horses in another way. I analyzed the markets just before the off and I think I have spotted some opportunities. They look very well in theory but practice will show. If it does not work i will completely turn to the dogs (assumed I can get the 100€ before!).

Until then I keep on betting the dogs.

Cya all!

Red figures

2007-09-26T23:09:00.001+01:00

The stats are bad as you can see below. My system did not hold. So I got smashed back to the ground. BUT (as always) I have a new idea on trading the horses which I implemented to the last trading day. Made a decent profit of about 20%. It could have been more if had greened out every race! I have too keep more disciplined on that point!

Hope to continue that (new) start but I will not trade until Tuesday because of not beeing home for that time.

Hope you all do good trades!

Quick update

2007-09-21T00:02:00.000+01:00

I had traded 7 races yesterday and the last one was very thrilling because my bet was not traded out during the race.

Apparently I had a bet on the very favorite horse. So there was no reason for other bettors or traders to doubt a win for that horse. Just in the very last second another horse ran to the finish beeing the first (which I did not know at that moment) and the crowd could not react that fast to take my green-out position. Then the market was suspended but reopened as there seemed to be a photo finish. I put in my green-out position and submitted as the market turned into suspended mode again. The winner was ascertained. My horse was second and so I got all the money which I had on the green side.
Puhhh!!

The amount I won by the last race was about three times the win which I normally get when I trade out during a race.

Hmmm... stuttering start!

2007-09-19T22:26:00.001+01:00

On 2007-08-17 I was up to 237€ and finally fell down to 80€. Today I was actually down to 40€. I could compensate my losses and win them back. There were a lot races that went against me. VERY strange as I think this is very abnormal.

I hope to do some trades tomorrow.

Cya!

Down the drain

2007-09-13T22:24:00.001+01:00

My bank was up 96€ when all my money went down the toilet. I aimed to get my the target of 120€ for that day and I nearly had it done. The last trade on which my tradeout position did not get matched already seemed very suspicious to me ..."nursery". I hadn't trade such a race before and I really thought of greening out my position before the start. There were enough opportunities. But I didn't. So I got caught once again. New balance is: 0.10€.

But nothing wrong. I think with that strategy and the money management I thought of using by clearing ~200€ is very well. I had done 96€ out of 4€ from the start by trading about 5-10 races every day. So by staking a little more intelligently I would have been in the game very well still earning money! This example has just been used by me to find out how many consecutive trades can be made that turn into a green.

Therefore I have transferred about 120€ to my account. The money might be in my account at the weekend or on monday.

My new horse-racing system has to be tested!

Result for today

2007-09-12T21:10:00.000+01:00

I am really busy so I can not write a lot. It is just going well. The percentage per day is very high.

I plan to use my new staking plan by about 120€. I hope to achieve that amount in a few days. Maybe until the weekend.

Cya all

Some horses

2007-09-10T22:52:00.000+01:00

Had a busy day and therefore I only got involved into 7 races. Result as follows:

I hope not to get broken until I have achieved about 200-300€ ;) ...because then I will change the money management!

I am excited!

Randomness of soccer

2007-09-09T23:19:00.000+01:00

Again, soccer banged me out... down to 3.94€. Three goals in a short timeframe. DAMN!!

I then watched out for the horses and traded them since then. I hope to build up my bank again. As it seems now it was a good run:

Cya!!

Conclusions...

2007-09-04T22:17:00.000+01:00

Well, well, well I think I know the mistakes I made on the last betting day. I chased! ...not in the way you think but in a structured way which I think was / is not very clever ...and will not be in future. All in all I doubled my stake to get the money back I had lost on my first trade. I will not do it again. If a mistake (wrong trade) happens... then it happens and I will not get furious!! I just have to get the money back by trading concentrated. Further on I switched to other matches which I did not watch. So this won't be done in future as well.

By following new rules this is the result for today:

There was only one soccer match that was inplay (Oxford - Exeter). I traded the over/under market and greened out. Then the third goal went in. Afterwards I tried the 3.5 over / under and had a little green on the under market but during injury time the fourth goal went in and left me a +/-0.00€.

It had to happen! Tha BANG!

2007-08-30T11:43:00.000+01:00

Yesterday I got caught! 3 early goals in a row in 3 different matches!! So there I am with about 75€ left. I knew this will come so I am not very surprised. For the weekend I am off. A lot of time to reform.

Cya and I wish you all good trading results!!

5 Soccer matches

2007-08-28T22:45:00.000+01:00

Today I traded 5 soccer matches in different markets. The matches were as follows:

Liverpool - Toulouse +8.54€
Bristol Rovers v West Ham +6.91€
Crvena Zvezda - Rangers +10.14
Halmstads - IFK Göteborg +0.06€
Nantes - Sedan +9.83€

I achieved an overall profit of +35.48€. This means 13.99% plus for this day as I orientate at +10% each trading day. So this was 2/5 more than I aim to earn:

It could have been a litte more if I had greened out earlier in the Halmstads - IFK Göteborg match but it was a pleasant result anyway!!

I will not trade from thursday to sunday and eventually monday because I will not be at home. Hope to trade some matches tomorrow evening.

Good luck to all!!

No action at the weekend

2007-08-27T21:33:00.000+01:00

Did not trade at the weekend. The sun was shining and so I met some friends and relaxed at a lake doing barbecue.

I just got into a single match (Frankfurt - Rostock) to trade on sunday. Today I was involved into three matches (Teplice - Slovan; Augsburg - Freiburg; Stevenage - Oxford). The main profits came from the first two matches where I could make 24.61€. On the third match I got in for about 4 minutes and turned my trade into a 1.91€ profit. Not much but it counts, too!!

Well, I do not really know how to rate my winnings the last 18 days because I am waiting for the bang. The reason for that is that I know that in the past my winning streak was always blown out due to a smash of a single match (tennis) AND I experienced that luck can change immediately. To my mind the profits were too easy!

Maybe soccer fits more my style of trading. Get in and get out in a short timeframe. But for all that I have to do is to develop a strategy that can handle 2 or 3 consecutive goals in these small timeframes. I have to do a staking / money-management plan. I already have some thoughts about that.

Nevertheless I am happy to have recaptured my losses more or less and seeing the bank grow much faster than trading the tennis!!

Cya

Big step forward!

2007-08-23T22:57:00.001+01:00

From the last weekend on I had some good trades. I concentrated more on the football over/under markets. I think I have found some interesting points to act. In fact they made me some good numbers. Have traded the biggest per cents last sunday as you can see below:

I was very busy that day in trading. I have almost traded about 6 matches from the afternoon until evening.

On low stakes this is really hard work but if you have an account ten times of mine it would be very pleasant. I really hope not to get knocked out this time on my way up!!!!

Double up. First time ever!

2007-08-19T16:43:00.001+01:00

The weekend was fine. Had a few racing trades and some on football. I was able to take profits. Had a small bet on friday and some on saturday:

I hope to continue so that I can double up again.... and again... and again ;)

Good luck to all!!

Some football trades

2007-08-16T21:54:00.000+01:00

The last two days I tried some footy. It did work fine as you can see below.

I think of combining the horses and footy. That means if I lose on some horses (in a row) I will switch to footbal to challenge my luck on "another game". We will see how it works.

I do not know if I will be able to trade tomorrow and/or the next days but my goal for the weekend is to go through the 100€ mark. Hope to get some time!

Good luck to all others out there trading and betting!

Continue

2007-08-14T22:19:00.000+01:00

Today I could continue the results of the last three betting days. In fact I had bets on horses in 11 races and I was wrong in two of them.

My plan is to build up my bank so that I can reduce my risk. I would like to achive an average percentage of about 1-3 per cent a betday. But as always there is a long way to go...

Tryin' the horses

2007-08-13T22:58:00.000+01:00

I got a little bored on tennis. So I had to find something new to explore and I fell over the horses. I had been trying to invent a system about 2 years ago as I was very new to betfair. It did not hold. With a "new" mind I try to start a new one. Hopefully it works. If not I have another one.

As you can see my start was very well but I think my beginnings have always been full of expectation. So please do not overrate these!!

We'll see how it goes on.

Tennis freeze! New experiment...

2007-08-08T09:37:00.000+01:00

As you have seen there were no more posts since 2007-07-22. The reason is that I got trapped again.... and badly! Even though my system was ok it broke! So I had to reconsider.

I have a new plan. I just try a racehorse-system and some other things besides, e.g. poker ;)

I will post the racehorse results in a few days.

No trades...

2007-07-22T11:26:00.001+01:00

Did not have time to trade this weekend due to the very nice wheather we had here in germany. I was out to a lake chilling. I read some chapters of the book "reminiscense of a stock operator" which I ordered some weeks ago. It is very recommendable and amusing!!! It shows you the life of Jesse Livermore as he started trading at the age of 14 at the bucket shops and how he turned to a professional trader at the Wall Street. The story is set in 1895-1920 and/but the the insights are valid today. If you are able to get the book... GET IT!!

I hope to trade some matches during the next week. I will let you know... as always ;)

Nadal boosts stats

2007-07-19T21:24:00.000+01:00

Well, I said I would not do a trade until the weekend but the odds on Nadal - Kohlschreiber were a present I thought. My lay on Nadal was matched at 1.04 at the beginning of the match and I got out very soon afterwards by backing him. The winning result is as shown below:

I did not trade the way I "normally" do but I had to take that price!

To my system I have added some new rules so that I hope to use them grainfully in future matches. Again the rules decrease the points to act... ;)

Dangerous: Low Volume Markets

2007-07-17T07:47:00.000+01:00

Yesterday was not bad in the beginning as I had traded two matches with a result of about +€21.

Then I moved to another market (Zabaleta - Vliegen). I had traded the way I always do but something was wrong. As I put in my order it was accepted much more later than in "normal" markets. Strange I thought. Then I saw the cause: The market volume was too low and I remembered the situation of the Ferrero-match on which I was wiped out (in the bginning of this blog). Anyhow it was very hard to get my order matched even I knew what to do: getting out as fast as you can!! The prices rushed away! It resulted in a very high minus of about -€44 so that my actual balance has shrinked very much.

The lesson I learned: Do not trade in low volume markets. IT IS DANGEROUS!! For me a market has to show a fundamental interest. I will work out some clues until the weekend. So there will not be any trade until then. DAMN!

I will place the balance-pic in the afternoon because I am not at home right now.

Continualness

2007-07-13T22:27:00.001+01:00

Did not think to get involved in trading today as I was out with my cousin to an adevnture park. Was very knackered in the evening. Thought I would get well again in front of tv... but then I took a bath and felt like a new man.

Watched 3 matches:
The first one (Amritaj - Mahut) was ok. Had green on both but only got +0.09€ in the end. The odds were too low to green out even in my opinion.
The second match (Moodie - Spadea) was very well. The most oft the profit came out of this match as Moodie could turn to favorite. In the end: +20.87€ added to my bank.
The last game (Zverev - Santoro) is still in progress but after all I am too tired. I greened out so that the outcome will be +9.75€ either way. Will go to bed in a few minutes.

I am cautious happy! For me my system works... right now. I will have to check the system in the long run yet. Many times I was gutted in the end.

One tennis trade

2007-07-12T22:01:00.000+01:00

Today was little time for trading. I only was involved in one tennis match (Seppi - Koubek) which was very dificult to trade in its beginning.

At first I was red -6€ which I leveled up to even afterwards. Then again I was red -6€ but could turn that loss into a +7€ win. With some more green on the other side I played around to enlarge the profit as shown below:

All in all: a plus of +4.51% out of a single tennis match.

Adding a plus to "even"

2007-07-11T22:05:00.000+01:00

Today was very exciting to trade in respect of my strategy. I feel fine with it as it includes the levers that I used when I started writing this blog. One big difference is that I take care of possible risks.

As you can see below my tennis trading for today resulted in a net profit of +12.19€. It could have been much more if I had taken the profits that ran into my direction. But there it was ...greed!!! Firstly it resulted in a day-minus of -6€ but afterwards I reflected and concentrated not to chase the loss.

I am pleased with my system right now because it opens the possibility for getting some big profits here and then. It will happen at one time or another.

If I had used the "one time or another"-situation today my profit would have been about 30-40€ ...in other words: +13-18% of my bank.

I hope to carry on that line.

The real big advantage of a working system (as it seems to me right now) is that you do not feel that you have to trade because you think you have to. You watch numbers much more relaxed in a little hope that an opportunity presents itself... and there WILL be enogh opportunities!! You just have to check oneself not to act hastily.

Reorder + including some old aspects

2007-07-06T23:17:00.000+01:00

Todays result was far better than the last ones. Maybe the reason for that is that I connected my strategy with an aspect of an older version. The point is that if I leave more space open for a trade it can get much more profitable. The negative aspect to that is that I have to do more +/- 0 trades which can get a little stressful but as I see the result for yesterday I am very pleased with it.

Besides it is very hard to find your way of trading!

The Chasing thing...

2007-07-06T23:02:00.001+01:00

So... I got trapped again! I can not be disciplined. And that is the result:

I know, Jaco, as I told you to be disciplined I had to take that advice as well! I will...

Continuing

2007-06-27T22:49:00.000+01:00

Well, not much to say besides a little trade of the Bogdanovic - Guccione match. Did not get a lot of possibilities because of having very little time at the moment. That pi****s me on ;(. I would like to trade far more!!

But for the sake of completeness here is my result for yesterday:

Not much, but as I have already said in an earlier post: A win is a win... and it is better than a small loss!! I was proud to stick to my rules because in the beginning there was a red of about 40 cents on one side. I had the calmness not to overreact. Looked objectively and got green ;) Could have trade more on that match but at the moment time is not money but RARE!

Cya soonest on sunday.

No time for trading.

2007-06-25T23:38:00.001+01:00

Money has been transferred and I was able to do my first little trading on the Moya - Henman match after some weeks beeing off. At present I have a lot to do at work... but it will end in about some weeks... I hope ;)

As you can see below I have made a little plus of about 4€. It could have been more if I had let run my profits. This is a point that I haven't really checked out yet but my focus on the new system was on risk. It is very enjoyable to see that the risks I take are really low in contrast to the profits that may come.

Even when I am wrong I have the possibility to get out of the trade at even or just a very little loss. I hope that the system will underline that point in the long run!

More trading will come with the Wimbledon event but I am off the computer from thursday to sunday ;(. I will let you know if I was able to trade 'til then.

New Start!

2007-06-19T13:43:00.000+01:00

No new results so far but I plan to start with a new amount of money. I transferred about 200€ to my betfair account. I think the money will be there in about 5 days. So I will have to wait a bit.

As I have said in my last post to develop a new trading technique I have tested with it on some matches that I was able to watch. With the last money in my account I figured out the limits of that system so that I was trapped sometimes. Now I think that the only risk is if I do not stick to the rules that I have developed or if the betfair site crashes.

Well, untill my money is not transferred yet there will be not much action.

I will inform you ;)

Back from vacation... and busy @ work

2007-06-11T23:12:00.000+01:00

Hi to all,

have been at home already on saturday but had no time to write since then... and I will have no time to trade at least until thursday. The reason is that I am busy at work.

The break was great. Have seen a lot and have been away from keyboard for about 2 weeks. Great! It feels good. Hope to keep the fresh energy for some good trades at the end of the week. I will test my insights of the last trading day. As I have read a book of financial trading they should be the right ingredients for a successful trading-technique... small risk and a high expectancy value.

That's it for now.

Update & 2 weeks off

2007-05-23T06:43:00.001+01:00

Hi to all. The last trading days were not better than the ones before. I always got caught on the risk side of my trading strategy. So my loss raised continuously as you can see below.

The only ray of hope was on the last day when I traded the very extreme of minimizing risk and immediately getting out when the market moved against me. That entails that the moments to react/getting into a match shrink massively. Perhaps this is the key whereby I did not let the profits run. So there is more potential. I will give it a try. I have nothing to lose.

The next two weeks I will be off because of vacation. So there won't be any updates for that period (maybe I will do an update if I can find an internet cafè). I hope you all will do some great trades even if betfair increased their commision rates.

See you all...

Back on earth

2007-05-21T10:45:00.000+01:00

Well, not much to say. Did a little bit of overtrading I think. Had too much bets in nearly every match that was "on".

After about 2 days off with only 1 match traded I hope to come back into form.

It is very hard to stick to the rules you develop. Sometimes you feel like you have to take a special bet even so it does not fit your rules. DAMN!! I have to become much more disciplined.

Nothing wrong

2007-05-16T18:52:00.000+01:00

Today I was in plus 8.9%. Then I took a break, went to the supermarket for food, came back home to trade another ...the last game for today. Well, better if I did not as you can see below.

Firstly as I got into the game I ate up my plus and was +/- 0%. Then I tried again but lost. It ended in a total of -10.13%. I think I did everything right but none of the games I traded made big swings. That`s all for today. Hope you all made it better... ;(

Some win

2007-05-15T15:16:00.000+01:00

Yesterday I traded a lot tennis matches. Some were good... some were bad. The bad ones always occured when I made a fine win. I have learn to be objective on EVERY tennis match and not to become hilarious. That will be hard work.

Here my result for yesterday:

Hope to stick to my rules next days....

Conclusion & Back on track

2007-05-14T09:59:00.000+01:00

After checking out some new strategies I came to the conclusion that the old system I had traded with was not that bad... in fact it was really good but crude. That is why i fell into a trap which I did not thought of... and I fell BADLY (Martin - Ferrero)! So after testing out new things I always got back to my old system merely tweaking it.

With new energy I want to start the path of getting back the money I lost. I already started some days ago with a bank of 60€. My performance is as follows:

There is something to say about the stats. I think they do not really represent the proficiency as it will be in the long term. I hope to achieve a win-rate of 2% on every trading day which will be very difficult especially if you reach a point where your market orders will not get fully matched. But until then there is a long way to go and I hope to reach that "magic" point.

As you can see in the picture there is a lot potential in my system. On some days I will get extremely high win-rates which are based on trades that run in my direction. I will explain that a little bit to you: I traded 9 tennis matches. After 7 matches I had a plus of about 7% but lost 5% on the 8th match... so all in all a little roughly. On match 9 (Ferrer - Bjorkman) the big return was made as I was able to let the trade run. I splittet the win equal after set 2. Such moments will happen time after time (hope there will be a lot of these times!!) but normally when there is no big change in a game my percentages will be more less. My old stats (before my huge collapse) are far more representative.

Well I hope to stick to my rules. I am open to all criticsm which may help me to optimize my puzzle.

I hope you enjoy reading my blog.

I am alive

2007-05-04T08:51:00.000+01:00

Hi to all,

have been busy because of my job and had no time to do some trades. Meanwhile I have build a new approach to do trades. Now I watch them from a different perspective ...more en bloc. I have to make a few more thoughts about that. So there will be more time needed to convert it into practice.

Hope all others did some great trades the last weeks.

I will be back soon!!

Yours ekcite

...more tests

2007-04-23T22:05:00.000+01:00

Today I traded some matches to look how my thoughts of the new strategy work out. I made about 2.30€ using 23€ stakes. Although my strategy does not give so much chances to place a bet/trade it works relatively effectively compared to the past ones. But that not-getting-involved into a game has a very relaxed effect to me. The mind feels much more free... to watch for chances to lock in the profit.

Furthermore some of the games that I had traded were very volatile even so I did not make a loss in any of the games. That is cool! Hope it can keep going on.

Further on there is a lot to test and screw...

Testing, testing, testing...

2007-04-21T23:49:00.000+01:00

Well, on my way to find a new strategy there are a lot hurdles to clear. Everytime I test a new system I get caught on the long run but get wiser too. That means, that the points to act decrease. But that reduction entails that the points to get out become more comfortably if the market turns against me. I can "sit" on my trade for a much longer time than in the past.

That means to me that I can trade much more relaxed which does not mean that the trade sorts itself.

I was down again to about 90€ because of the latest tests. Now with a new system and stakes of 20€ I managed to get back to 95€. Hope it works.

I am alive, yes... but it is a long path!

Massive Loss

2007-04-14T22:55:00.000+01:00

Todays Result: about -80%

Had a very hefty loss on the Martin - Ferrero match (2007-04-12). Everything went wrong. First of all I made a mistake on backing Ferrero instead of laying (using the advantage of one-click betting of a trading software.. haha). Then within seconds Ferrero was not doing well and the price drifted exorbitantly. Mostly due to low market volume! Because of having nearly all the money on him I could not lay. So I had to sit back... relax... and look on how I was losing money... in fact about -80% !!!!

I did not do a lot since then. I had to digest the loss.

I used some days to get a clear mind and to get a step back to rethink what I did. The conclusion was that even if I had layed Ferrero and might have won a lot of money my system was too risky (apart from mishandling a software). Not in the Martin - Ferrero match but to other plays I had traded. Predicting how the market will move had a great bearing on the old system. Even though predicting the market is somehow included in every system you can handle it in a lot of different ways in respect of risk.
Furthermore the latest experience makes clear to me that you can lose money in a million variant ways even though you proof every decision in-depth AND even if you are right!

Down to 93€ I tested a new method preferably only placing bets of 10€ stakes ...for now. My bank "lifted" up to 100€ and I want to get back the amount I have lost... and ideally more ;). The new method looks much friendlier to me and is much more riskless and stable. I hope it can resist in the long term.

So starting by a new way of trading I hope that all readers of my blog will read on and enjoy my journey to success.

Though not mentioned I have also new ideas on money management. Hard to believe... I know ;)

Short Trade

2007-04-09T20:46:00.000+01:00

Todays Result: 2.81%

Back from Easter and a long 8 hours drive back home I decided to take a look at the current tennis fixtures before having a bath. One was able to come into question and had just started. So every chance of getting some profit was still there. It was the Zvonareva - Dechy match.

The first points were very clearly played (40-0 both sides). So to my mind every player had a chance to get the first break although Zvonareva played a little stronger. Even so I layed Zvonareva and luckily she stumbled a bit so that I could back her at a higher price. I was green on her 2.81% and about 23% on the other side. I could have raised my profit easily to 10% to both sides as suddenly the betfair site crashed and was no longer available. Damn!! I could not do anything until the match had ended. That bites!

Nevermind! The time I invested was only about 15 minutes. Therefore it was a relatively productive quarter hour.

Small profit

2007-04-05T22:38:00.000+01:00

Todays Result: 1.87%

My first trade Srebotnik - Safina ended in a negative result. That means -1.6%. This does not seem very much but I had my problems in turning the loss into a profit over the rest of the day because the womens' matches again as yesterday were very one-sided.

The only "bigger" profit came from the Bammer - Sprem match where I could take 2.2%. I could have done twice that number but as I had my bet into the game Bammer's serve could not get broken.

Later I watched (scoreboard) two matches: Petrova - Zheng 0.4% and Ivanovic - Dechy 0.87%. Again difficult to trade for me.

I had no time for the following plays on account of packing bags.

So not a really productive day for me even so I am pleased with it.

I wish you Happy Easter! Until Tuesday there will not be an update because of short holiday. Best luck with your trading!

Some tennis trading

2007-04-04T22:25:00.000+01:00

Todays Result: 7.14%

Today I had some trades on the women tennis matches. The biggest win was on the match between Sprem - Li. I luckily got into the game just before Li got broken on her serve. Then I played around with the big green on Sprem's side. I got around 6% (included in the 7,14%) out of that game for the daily result.

Afterwards I traded the Bammer - Razzano match and took a profit of about 1.5% which turned to 0.6% after trading Dechy - Daniilidou (-0.9%).

About an hour later I traded back ~0.6% in the Oprandi - Stosur match. I felt to get in when the prices were very flatty... too flatty in my opinion as I recapitulate now. So I had to sweat some seconds until my order got matched.

The matches Golovin - Castano and Benesova - Jankovic turned to a little loss of about -0.06%. Jankovic was strong / one way against Benesova. It was difficult to trade for me. Prices were in the dumps very soon.

Sad to say my profit easily could have been about 2% higher than I achieved today. But nevertheless a profit means a profit and to my mind thats the goal of a trader.

I hope to trade some matches tomorrow because from friday to monday I visit my grandparents at Easter. They do not have an internet connection and additionally I will (or would? whats right?) not have calm to concentrate to my trades.

Starting with the trade

2007-04-02T22:34:00.000+01:00

Hello,

this is my blog about trading at betfair. I started trading about 1 year ago and I have won and lost money... but mostly I had lost. Some weeks ago I tried to trade but had lost money again. This time it was a little bit different. I think I had one of the key-moments you are searching for time and time again. From this point on (starting with a bank of 338 €) I constantly upped my bank about 5% on average every trading day.

The intention of this blog is to keep the results of my (new way of) trading. I will try to post every result of my trades of each trade-day.

I hope you enjoy this blog. My english is not the best. So I hope that you will forgive my bad expression.

For your interest the results so far:
02.04.2007 9.33%
29.03.2007 -4.24% (due to cricket)
28.03.2007 7.40%
24.03.2007 -1.88%
23.03.2007 2.64%
21.03.2007 13.93%
20.03.2007 4.78%
19.03.2007 10.19%

=> 5.27% average